2018 Karnataka Assembly Election May 12,2018 - Poll Results Analysis

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has done remarkably well, raising its vote share from 20 per cent in 2013 to 36.2 per cent and its seats tally from 40 to 104, the fact of the matter is that it has fallen tantalisingly short of the majority mark of 113 seats

Congress has managed 37.9 per cent of the vote, against 36.3 per cent in 2013, its seats have dropped from 122 to 78. The Siddaramaiah government’s failings in addressing rural distress came to the fore

Janata Dal (Secular), having secured 38 seats, may have benefited from the neglect of rural issues as well as the nativist overtones of the campaign.

The hung verdict in the Karnataka assembly elections has delivered a subtle set of messages to all actors in the fray

In keeping with the SR Bommai vs Union of India judgment, the Governor is bound to invite the BJP, the single largest party, to establish majority on the floor of the House. If the BJP fails to do so, the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), which seem to have entered into an understanding, can stake a claim to form the government. The Bommai rule was not observed when the Congress was the single largest party in Manipur and Goa.

Article 163 and 164

The Articles 163 and 164 of the Constitution deals with the Council of Ministers in the states. Article 163 states that there shall be a Council of Ministers headed by the Chief Minister that should aid and advice the Governor in exercise of his functions, except in so far as he is by or under the Constitution required to exercise his functions or any of them in his discretion.
It also states that if any situation arises whereby the Governor is by or under Constitution required to act in his discretion, the decision taken by him shall be final and that the validity of anything done by the Governor must not be called in question.

Past precendent

1989 Lok Sabha Polls

In 1989 Lok Sabha polls, faced with the hung verdict, then President R Venkataraman had followed the thumb rule by inviting parties according to their strength to the form the government. The Congress under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi was the single largest party with 193 seats, but it had refused to form the government citing mandate was against it. The second largest party was Janata Dal. Venkataraman invited Vishwanath Pratap Singh, the leader of the Janata Party which had the support of the BJP and Left.

1991 Lok Sabha Polls

Again in 1991, following the fractured mandate, Venkataraman invited then single largest party, Congress. The Congress formed the under with PV Narasimha Rao and cleared the floor test smoothly.

1996 Lok Sabha Polls

In 1996, then President Shankar Dayal Sharma followed the same principle to invite BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form the government. The BJP was single largest party with 194 MPs. The party formed the government but failed to survive.

1998 Lok Sabha Polls

The 1998 Lok Sabha polls also threw a fractured mandate. Then President KR Narayanan verified the letters of support of the political parties extended to the BJP before inviting it to form the government.

2004 Lok Sabha Polls

Again in 2004 general elections, then President APJ Abdul Kalam invited the Congress-led UPA to form the government with 216 MPs. The Left with 61 seats had extended support to the UPA after the polls. At that time, the BJP-led NDA had won 187 seats.

Goa, Manipur and Mizoram

But since last one year, new trends were set when in Goa, Manipur and Mizoram, the single largest party Congress was not given preference to form the government. In Goa, the Congress had won 17 seats in 40-member Assembly but the BJP with the help of regional parties formed the government. In Manipur and Mizoram too, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party but the BJP was invited to form the government.