What is a referendum?
A referendum is a vote in which everyone of voting age can take part, normally giving a “Yes” or “No” answer to a question. Whichever side gets more than half of all votes is considered to have won.
When is the vote?
The referendum is scheduled for Thursday, June 23.
What is the European Union?
The European Union is an economic-political union with roots in the post-World War II era, set up as a response to nationalism that ripped through Europe at the time. The idea was to ensure peace partly by promoting economic cooperation in a single market of the member-states. It has headquarters in Brussels, has its own currency - the Euro - which is used by 19 of the member countries, its own parliament and it now sets rules in a wide range of areas - including on the environment, transport, consumer rights and even things like mobile phone charges. Citizens of member-states have the right to ‘freedom of movement’, which means the citizens can move, live and work in any of the member-states. It currently has 28 member-states, with more (including Turkey) applying to join.
Why is it being held?
Britain has always been uneasy about the EU since its formation in the early 1950s. It voted in a referendum in 1975 to stay in the EU, but since then, many believe Britain did not have a say on its relationship with the EU. There has been much disquiet in Britain since the early 2000s about migration into the country from within the European Union and its effects on communities, towns, wages and public services. In 2004, 10 East European countries joined the EU; two more joined in 2007, allowing its citizens freedom of movement. In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron promised to hold a referendum if he won the 2015 general election.
What is the referendum question on the ballot paper?
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
Who is campaigning?
There are two sides recognised by the Electoral Commission: the In Campaign Ltd and Vote Leave Ltd – the first campaigning to remain in the EU and the second to leave. The official position of the David Cameron government is to remain in the EU; thus, Cameron and most of his ministers and Conservative MPs are on the ‘In’ side, so is Labour. Vote Leave includes six ministers, including Justice Secretary Michael Gove, employment minister Priti Patel and Boris Johnson. The UK Independence Party (leader: Nigel Farage), which has enlisted much support in recent local and general elections on its anti-EU plant, is not part of Vote Leave, but has been campaigning vigorously.
What are the main arguments to stay?
The Remain side has made economy its main plank. Britain’s economy has grown since it joined the EU; it enjoys tariff-free movement of goods, services, capital and workers across the 500-million strong EU market. It says millions of British jobs depend on continued membership of the EU. Britain also benefits from EU’s policies on climate change, agriculture, fisheries, education. Membership also allows Britons to move, live and work across Europe. It argues that leaving the EU would shrink the economy, lead to job losses and more austerity in public spending. Cameron has already got a ‘deal’ from Brussels to reinforce its ‘special’ place in the EU: curbs on EU migrants accessing state benefits, not being part of Schengen, continued use of its own currency, the pound (not adopting the Euro). Most of British business and industry supports the ‘In’ cause.
What are the main arguments to leave?
The Brexit camp has made the sensitive issue of immigration its main plank, which has gained it much traction in recent opinion polls. It wants to put in place the same tough conditions for EU migrants as for people from India and other non-EU countries. Its key message is: ‘Take back control’, building on the perception that more and more national powers have been taken over by the EU ‘super-state’. It wants Britain to be run by its own elected representatives, instead of un-elected bureaucrats in Brussels. This camp has its own group of business and industry leaders who want a leave vote. It wants to trade more with India and the Commonwealth after leaving the EU
WHO CAN VOTE?
All those who are entitled to vote in a UK parliamentary election can vote in the referendum, including British, Irish and qualifying Commonwealth citizens over the age of 18 who are resident in the UK. UK nationals resident overseas who have appeared on a parliamentary election register in the past 15 years will also have the right to vote, as will Irish citizens who were born in Northern Ireland and registered to vote in Northern Ireland in the last 15 years. In addition, peers and citizens of Gibraltar who were able to vote at a European parliamentary election can vote.
REGISTERING TO VOTE
Britain extended the voter registration period for the referendum to midnight on June 9 after a late surge in applications crashed a key website shortly before the original June 7 midnight deadline.
WHEN CAN PEOPLE VOTE?
Polling stations open at 0600 on June 23 and close at 2100
WHEN WILL RESULTS COME?
Votes will be counted by hand, starting as soon as polls close at 2100 GMT. Each of 382 local counting areas will tally the number of ballot papers cast and announce local turnout figures (including spoiled ballots and postal votes) in each of the areas. The Electoral Commission has estimated that most turnout announcements at counting-area level will come between 2230 on June 23 and 0130 on June 24. The last turnout figure is expected at around 0400.Each area will count the votes and announce totals for REMAIN and LEAVE in each of the 382 areas. The majority of counting areas are expected to declare between around 0100 and 0300 on June 24. The last declaration is expected around 0600. Local totals will be collated into totals for 12 regions, and then a final, national, result. The final result will be announced in Manchester by Jenny Watson, Chief Counting Officer.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
1) Turnout could be key to the result but only partial figures will be available initially. Turnout at last year’s British parliamentary election was 66 percent. Turnout well below this is likely to favour Leave as those who back Brexit are considered more likely to vote, according to campaigners on both sides.
2) First results: Sunderland, likely to be one of the first results to declare (2330), has a large number of older, lower income voters who polls show are more likely to back Brexit. If Leave are not strongly ahead here it may indicate they will struggle to break through in areas less favourable to Brexit.
3) Geography: Leave is expected to do well in eastern England, so close results in some of the most eurosceptic areas such as Southend-on-Sea (0200) and Castle Point (0130) could give an indication the national vote has swung towards Remain.
4) Labour voters: Opposition Labour Party supporters are considered key to securing a Remain vote so the results of traditional Labour strongholds such as the north of England and south Wales, where backing for the anti-EU UK Independence Party has risen, will be closely watched. Early declarations in such areas include Oldham (0000) and Salford (0030) in northern England and Merthyr Tydfil (0030) in Wales.
5) Scotland: Scotland is considered to be pro-EU, so any close early results from Scotland such as Stirling (0030) could indicate trouble for the Remain camp.
6) Swing seats: Nuneaton (0100) is considered a bellwether seat in parliamentary elections so will be watched to see if Prime Minister David Cameron has managed to get swing voters who last year backed his Conservatives to turn out for Remain.
7) Count chronology: Some research has indicated Remain could be well ahead at first and that from around 0300-0400 the Brexit count is less likely to deviate from the end results. Others, as the Open Europe think tank, have suggested that by about 0330 most of strongest Leave areas will have declared so if Leave do not hold the lead or even if it is very close, it may bode badly for them. Ron Johnston, a professor of geography at the University of Bristol who has researched the counting areas and modelled how the vote could unfold, said the big picture was that the figures could flip around until about 0300
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