India Waiting for the Rain

India's life-giving season of rain has already missed its scheduled June 01,2014 date with Kerala, and there's a one-in-four chance that the delay could turn into a full-on drought.

Add to that the not-so-well understood El Nino phenomenon - an upwelling of warm water in the eastern Pacific that has a far-reaching effect on regional weather patterns across the globe

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 24,2014 predicted below-normal rainfall this year, with monsoon rainfall likely to be 95 % of normal (with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 %).

Another second-stage forecast will be issued by IMD later this month. The first IMD forecast puts the chances of both a normal and a below-normal monsoon at roughly one in three, but speaks of a 23 % chance of drought.