Calling Gujarat the BJP’s strongest bastion may not be an overstatement. It is the only State where the party has never lost an Assembly election after first coming to power in 1995. In the elections in 1998, 2002, 2007 and 2012, its vote share was over 40% and seat tally, more than 110.
With such a record, no poll pundit or political expert can rule out another victory for the saffron brigade. A deep presence in all regions of the State, a strong base, a predominant presence in urban areas and strong Hindutva credentials, along with claims of development, are among the factors that has helped the BJP establish such a deep presence in Gujarat. Ever since its arrival, politics in the State has been bipolar, with just the Congress as a major rival.
In the 1995 Assembly elections, when it defeated the ruling Congress, the BJP won 121 of the 182 seats. It formed the government with Keshubhai Patel as Chief Minister. However, within six months, Shankersinh Vaghela, who felt sidelined and ignored, mounted a major rebellion.
Mr. Vaghela’s rebellion forced the party to replace Mr. Patel with Suresh Mehta, a compromise candidate. However, within a few months, the party split with 45 MLAs joining the Vaghela camp.
After a brief spell of President’s Rule, Mr. Vaghela formed a government with the Congress supporting from outside. The arrangement ran into its inevitable collapse in 1998, and the State went in for simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. In its second straight victory, the BJP took 117 seats and formed a government with Mr. Patel as Chief Minister.
In the second half of 2001, the party replaced Mr. Patel after losing the local bodies’ elections in 2000 and a few byelections in 2001. The government’s image had taken a beating with charges of corruption, poor governance and poor response to a string of natural calamities such as consecutive droughts from 1998 to 2000, a massive cyclone in 1998 and a devastating earthquake in 2001.
Modi’s innings
Enter Narendra Modi, then a party general secretary but not even an MLA. Mr. Modi took the reins of Gujarat in October 2001 amid the rising unpopularity faced by the BJP.
In February 2002, 59 Hindu pilgrims returning from Ayodhya were charred to death in a coach of the Sabarmati Express in Godhra, triggering large-scale riots across the State in which more than 1,000 people were killed in reprisal.
In the Assembly elections held in December 2002 against the backdrop of the brutal riots, the BJP won a landslide, taking 127 seats. The State politics thus entered a new phase then.
Mr. Modi was alleged to be responsible for the riots, but soon after he won the polls, he changed gears with a focus on governance and development. He started a huge exercise to market Gujarat as a preferred destination for business and investment after the State received international infamy for the targeting of Muslims during the riots.
Under Mr. Modi, the BJP prided itself as a natural party of governance and won all elections, even those to the local bodies in 2005 and 2010 and the Assembly polls in 2007 and 2012. Even a minor split caused by Keshubhai Patel in 2012 could not damage the BJP electorally.
“We have never lost an Assembly election in Gujarat and will continue that in 2017 ,” Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel told
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