CNN IBN-THE HINDU ELECTION TRACKER SURVEY

It’s a thumbs-up for the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu, says an opinion poll, which also hints at both the Congress and BJP making some gains if a general election were to be held now

The Survey conducted bythe Centre for the Study of Developing Societies(CSDS)for CNN - IBN and The Hindu reveals that the AIADMK government led by Jayalalithaa, is faring better than the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre or the previous Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) regime on different counts

Nearly two-thirds (65 %) of the 786 respondents are satisfied with her Govt as against the satisfaction level of 39 % for the UPA regime

Similarly, comparing the AIADMK Govt with the DMK regime (2006-2011), the approval rating for the former is 43% against 26 % for the latter

The survey also endorses the conventional thumb rule that in the State rural areas, the AIADMK is stronger than the DMK

The AIADMK’s gain is limited to a 3% point rise in terms of vote share – from 23 in the 2009 Lok Sabha election to 26 per cent now. However, it is arch-rival DMK that should be more worried about the findings. Its vote base has gone down sharply – from 25% in 2009 to 16

The principal national parties — the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — have a reason to smile, as an opinion poll says the strength of these parties has increased in Tamil Nadu

Going by the poll tracker survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Hindu, the BJP’s vote share is 10 % and that of the Congress 18 % in the State

The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), seeking to present itself as an alternative to the two main regional parties, now has a 7% vote share, as against 10 % in 2009

Note

• The sample size in Tamil Nadu (786) is proportionately less compared to the State’s electorate
• About 18% of the respondents fall under the category of “undecided voters.”