2016 Assembly Elections - Opinion Polls

 

Win for Mamata, lead for Jaya, Kerala to LDF, Assam to NDA

 

 Opinion polls conducted by various poll agencies have predicted a big win for the ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, lead for the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, win or lead for the BJP-AGP alliance in Assam and a clear victory for the CPM-led LDF in Kerala

WEST BENGAL

According to ABP News opinion poll conducted last month, Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will come to poweragain in West Bengal, winning 178 seats out of 294 with 45% vote share. The Left–Congress alliance is projected to win 110 seats with 44% vote share. The BJP may win just one seat with 5% vote share in the state says the survey. Others may win 5 seats with 6% vote share.

ABP Ananda – Neilsen poll survey done in February, before the Left–Congress alliance was forged, had predicted 182 seats for TMC, 107 seats for the Left – Congress combine, no seats for BJP and 5 seats for others.

ETV Bangla opinion poll carried out in March predicts a landslide win for the TMC with 201 seats. According to the same survey, Left parties may win just 37 seats and the Congress may win 27 seats.
In the last Assembly elections, the Trinamool won 184( which they subsequently increased in bypolls), Left Parties won 62 and the Congress 42.

KERALA

C-Voter opinion poll predicts that the CPM-led LDF will return to power by winning 89 out of 140 seats in the state Assembly. The ruling Congress-led UDF is expected to win just 49 seats. Interestingly, the BJP is expected to open its account in Kerala Assembly by bagging one seat.
C-Fore – Asianet opinion poll also predicts a clear win for the LDF with 77-82 seats. It says the LDF may get 41% votes. The Congress led UDF is expected to win 55-60 seats with 37% vote share. The BJP is expected to win 3-5 seats with 18% vote share says the C-Fore Asianet Survey.

In 2011, the UDF had won 72, edging out the LDF by 4 seats.

TAMIL NADU

Two pre-poll surveys have predicted that the ruling AIADMK of J Jayalalithaa will retain power in the state. If it happens, it will be for the first time since the MGR regime, that a ruling party comes back to power in Tamil Nadu.

According to India TV – CVoter poll, AIADMK is expected to win 116 seats out of a total of 234. The DMK-led alliance is projected to win 101 seats and the others may win 17 seats.

Another survey done by Loyola College of Chennai has predicted just vote shares. According this survey AIADMK may get 34.1%, DMK 32.6%, DMDK 4%, PMK 3% and BJP 2.9% respectively in the polls.

Loyola College opinion poll also claims that the chief minister J Jayalalithaa has 31.56% approval ratings. The DMK leader M K Stalin has got 27.98% approval ratings. His father and DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi has got 21.33% approval rating. Actor Vijayakanth of DMDK has got 6.24% approval ratings and Dr. Anbumani Ramdoss of PMK has got just 2.27% approval ratings.

In 2011, the AIADMK won 203 seats, and the DMK alliance, 31 seats.

ASSAM

According to ABP News opinion poll the BJP–AGP alliance is expected to register a clear victory in Assam. It predicts 78 seats out of 126 for the BJP-AGP alliance with 44% vote share. It says the ruling Congress could end up with just 36 seats and may get 34% votes. The AIUDF could get 10 seats with 11% votes. The others are expected to win just 2 seats and 11% votes.

An opinion poll conducted AVC predicts a badly-hung Assembly in Assam. It predicts 48-54 seats for the BJP-AGP alliance, 40 seats for the Congress and 25 seats for the AUDF in the state. The India TV – CVoter survey also predicts a hung Assembly in the state. It predicts 57 seats for the BJP-AGP alliance, 44 seats for the ruling Congress, 19 seats for the AUDF and 6 seats for Others respectively.

In the last elections the Congress had won 78 seats and AIUDF, 18