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Sunday, September 6, 2015

The Indian Rupee Slide - Rupee hits 2-year low of 66.82 Monday Sep 07,2015

The Indian Rupee has been sliding ever since China decided to re-set the yuan reference rate.

From about 63.76 against the US dollar in the first week of August, the currency is now at 66.5 – down 4%

In the June quarter, the average rupee rate against the dollar was 63.63, down from 59.87 in the same period last year, but margins of tech companies narrowed by about 1.1 % points in this period

In the last 12 months, despite the rupee depreciating 6.5 % against the dollar, it has appreciated by a sharp 11 % and 14 %, respectively, against the British pound and the euro

It is unfortunate that political economy considerations mandate that the rupee should not significantly depreciate against the US dollar. This becomes problematic when the US dollar appreciates vis-à-vis major currencies and gold

The turbulence in the currency market as the Chinese central bank linked the yuan reference rate to the market saw the rupee hit a low of 65 against the dollar

While the sharp decline in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to minus 4.05 per cent provided some respite to the currency on Friday, the positive impact proved to be short-lived as the weak trade deficit data exerted pressure on the rupee once again. 

India’s exports fell 10.3 % (year-on-year) in July, its eighth consecutive monthly fall. 

The trade deficit widened to $12.81 billion in July from a deficit of $10.83 billion a month earlier.

On Monday Sep 07,2015,the Indian Rupee dropped to 66.89/dollar, a level last seen on September 4, 2013, before closing at 66.82, down 0.54 per cent from its previous close of 66.47

In the first three market days of September, global funds have net sold $384 million of Indian stocks, taking outflows this quarter to $2.1 billion

The India Rupee’s decline since January 2015 is no comparison to the declines in the Brazilian Real (-31 per cent), South African Rand (-17 per cent), Russian Ruble (-15 per cent) or the Indonesian Rupiah (-13 per cent).
If these currencies were hammered due to their countries’ reliance on commodity exports, the rupee has been resilient since India is a net commodity importer. Falling inflation, comfortable forex reserves and the best real rate of interest helped too.

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