Drought fears rise as India's Met department warns of one in three chance the monsoon will fail in 2014 Monday June 09,2014

 

In a report released on Monday June 09,2014, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that monsoon rainfall would be 90 to 96% of the average of 89 cm for the 1951-2000 period. This will put the monsoon in the "below-normal" category

A monsoon is considered normal if rainfall is between 96 and 104 per cent of the Long Period Average(LPA)

The IMD's long-range forecast update for the southwest monsoon warned that the chance of the monsoon being "deficient," or less than 90% of the long period average (LPA), is 33 per cent. This means there is a one-in-three chance of a drought. 

The chances of the El Nino weather phenomenon occurring, which can cause drought in South Asia, are more than 70 %, the IMD said.

The 4-month monsoon season has started on a weak note as rains arrived over southern India about five days behind the regular date of June 01,2014 

What is more worrying is that the seasonal rainfall may be just 85% of the LPA of 615 mm for northwest India, the principal area producing 55 % of the country's foodgrains. The region is also vital for crops like paddy, wheat, maize, jowar, groundnut, black gram, green gram, pigeon pea cotton and sugarcane. 

A weak monsoon may also adversely affect the sowing of paddy in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. For central India, which produces jowar, soybean, maize, sunflower, cotton, groundnut and sugarcane, rainfall is likely to be 94 % of the region-specific long term average of 975.5mm, while for the South Peninsula, where pigeon pea, green gram, black gram, rice, sunflower, jowar and groundnut is cultivated, rains are likely to be 93 % of the LPA of 715.5mm.

North-east India, which primarily produces rice and horticultural crops, is expected to receive 99 % of the LPA of 1438.3mm between June and September

Government gearing up to tackle drought

Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh on Monday June 09,2014  said he would be moving a Cabinet note soon to introduce a diesel subsidy scheme for farmers, which would enable them to irrigate crops in the event of a rainfall deficit.

"We are fully geared up to face any drought situation. We are alert and seriously working on measures to meet any eventuality arising out of drought or deficit rainfall situation," Singh said.

"We will soon move a Cabinet note seeking approval for introduction of a diesel subsidy scheme for providing protective irrigation to standing crops in rainfall deficit areas," the minister added.

During the drought years in 2009 and 2012, the previous UPA government had announced a 50 % diesel subsidy for farmers in rainfall deficit areas. 

The other Cabinet proposals include rescheduling crop loans and providing interest subvention in drought-hit areas