Nitish Kumar's reign as Bihar Chief Minister will continue as the
Janata Dal United-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance is going to win
the Assembly elections easily, according to the CNN-IBN-Axis My India
pre-poll survey.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic
Alliance will come second and the expected seat gap would be wide,
reveals the survey, which is the largest pre-poll exercise of its kind.
The JDU-RJD-Congress alliance is projected to get 129-145 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. The halfway mark is 122 seats.
The NDA which apart from the BJP also has Lok Janshakti Party, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) will bag just 87-103 seats.
The others like Samajawadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Nationalist Congress Party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) etc likely to be routed. They may win just 8-14 seats.
Vote share based on caste and religious groups
The JDU–RJD–Congress alliance is expected to get 72% Muslim votes, 67% Yadav votes, 53% Kurmi/Koeri votes, 31% OBC & Others, 42% SC/ST and 14% upper caste votes. The NDA is expected to get 10% Muslim votes, 21% Yadavs, 36% Kurmi/Koeri, 53% OBC&Others, 38% SC/ST and 73% upper caste votes. The Others are expected to get 18% Muslim, 12% Yadavs, 11% Kurmi/Koeri, 16% OBC&Others, 20% SC/ST and 13% upper caste votes.
Vote share based on income groups
The BJP alliance is likely to get 36% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 38% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs 10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 40% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs 20,000 per month.
The JDU alliance is likely to get 49% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 48% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 41% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
The Others are likely to get 15% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs.10,000 per month. They are expected to get 14% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and the others are expected to get 19% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
Vote share based on age groups
A total of 40% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the BJP led alliance, 39% in the age group of 26-35 years, 38% in the age group of 36-50 years and 35% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the BJP led alliance.
On the other hand 46% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the JDU led alliance, 46% in the age group of 26-35 years, 46% in the age group of 36-50 years and 45% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the Mahagathbandhan. It shows that across all age groups, the JDU led alliance is leading.
Also 14% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the others, 15% in the age group of 26-35 years, 16% in the age group of 36-50 years and 20% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour them.
Nitish Kumar most popular choice for CM
Among the respondents 43% voters have chosen chief minister Nitish Kumar as their choice for the post of chief minister. BJP leader and former Deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi has got 33% approval ratings, former chief minister Lalu Prasad has got a mere 6%, former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi 4%, Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan 3%, others 6% and 5% have no opinion
The JDU-RJD-Congress alliance is projected to get 129-145 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. The halfway mark is 122 seats.
The NDA which apart from the BJP also has Lok Janshakti Party, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) will bag just 87-103 seats.
The others like Samajawadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Nationalist Congress Party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) etc likely to be routed. They may win just 8-14 seats.
Vote share based on caste and religious groups
The JDU–RJD–Congress alliance is expected to get 72% Muslim votes, 67% Yadav votes, 53% Kurmi/Koeri votes, 31% OBC & Others, 42% SC/ST and 14% upper caste votes. The NDA is expected to get 10% Muslim votes, 21% Yadavs, 36% Kurmi/Koeri, 53% OBC&Others, 38% SC/ST and 73% upper caste votes. The Others are expected to get 18% Muslim, 12% Yadavs, 11% Kurmi/Koeri, 16% OBC&Others, 20% SC/ST and 13% upper caste votes.
Vote share based on income groups
The BJP alliance is likely to get 36% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 38% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs 10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 40% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs 20,000 per month.
The JDU alliance is likely to get 49% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs 10,000 per month. It is expected to get 48% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and it is expected to get 41% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
The Others are likely to get 15% votes of the income group whose income is less than Rs.10,000 per month. They are expected to get 14% votes of the income group whose income is between Rs.10,000-20,000 per month and the others are expected to get 19% votes of the income group whose income is above Rs.20,000 per month.
Vote share based on age groups
A total of 40% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the BJP led alliance, 39% in the age group of 26-35 years, 38% in the age group of 36-50 years and 35% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the BJP led alliance.
On the other hand 46% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the JDU led alliance, 46% in the age group of 26-35 years, 46% in the age group of 36-50 years and 45% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour the Mahagathbandhan. It shows that across all age groups, the JDU led alliance is leading.
Also 14% voters in the age group of 18-25 are likely to vote for the others, 15% in the age group of 26-35 years, 16% in the age group of 36-50 years and 20% in the age group of 50 and above age are expected to favour them.
Nitish Kumar most popular choice for CM
Among the respondents 43% voters have chosen chief minister Nitish Kumar as their choice for the post of chief minister. BJP leader and former Deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi has got 33% approval ratings, former chief minister Lalu Prasad has got a mere 6%, former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi 4%, Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan 3%, others 6% and 5% have no opinion
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