‘El Nino in final phase, monsoon-friendly La Nina likely to set in by September 2016’

The monster 2015-16 El Nino may be entering its last stages, and its alter ego La Nina may begin to establish by September, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology sees a 50 % chance of La Nina emerging in the East Equatorial Pacific, prompting it to go into ‘La Nina watch’ mode.

Six of eight international climate models suggest that the tropical Pacific Ocean will return to ‘neutral’ levels during May 2016

Of them, seven indicate that La Nina thresholds may emerge by September 2016

 This is despite individual model outlooks showing a large spread between neutral and La Nina scenarios, the Australian agency said. 

The emerging snippets of information with regard to changing dynamics in the Equatorial Pacific are good news for the Indian monsoon. 

La Nina has been associated with a successful Indian monsoon though with exceptions; they do not strictly have a direct cause-effect relationship. 

Overall build-up in India towards May/June as evidenced in the sustained heating of the land also suggests that the ground is being prepared for a good monsoon this year.