South Carolina will become the third state (after Iowa and New Hamshire)to cast its ballots in the Republican nomination contest
Democrats in the state, however, won't vote today — instead, they'll do so one week later, on Saturday, February 27,2016
South Carolina is the first state from the South to weigh in and the most delegate-rich state to vote so far.South Carolina is more important for how it can reshape the political world's perceptions of the race than it is for its delegates.
Specifically, the media, party insiders, activists, the candidates themselves, and voters in other states will all come to various conclusions based on South Carolina's results. And this will affect everyone's choices and strategies in the next few weeks, when the pace of voting will suddenly accelerate.
South Carolina's primary could be particularly consequential this year because it comes just 10 days ahead of "Southern Super Tuesday" on March 1. On that day, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas — which together account for nearly 20 percent of total Republican delegates — will all go to the polls (as will a few non-Southern states)
Every Poll of South Carolina Republicans conducted since November has shown the same person in first place: Donald J. Trump
So, naturally, Trump is expected to win
Furthermore, if Trump wins, he'd likely win all or nearly of South Carolina's delegates. Unlike the other states voting in February, which allocate their delegates proportionately to several candidates, South Carolina gives out 29 delegates to the statewide winner and 21 delegates to congressional district winners across the state (3 delegates each in 7 districts)
Ted Cruz is an extremely conservative evangelical Southerner, he seemed to be positioned to do well in South Carolina — many expected he had a good shot to win the state, particularly after his Iowa caucus victory. But recent polls indicate that Cruz is currently well behind Trump and instead battling with Rubio for 2nd place
If Ted Cruz comes from behind to win the state, it will, of course, be a major victory for him, and will position him well for the Southern contests on Super Tuesday March 01,2016
Marco Rubio has remained competitive in recent polls in South Carolina and the RealClearPolitics polling average currently places himless than apoint behing second-place finisher Ted Cruz.
A second-place finish in South Carolina would be fantastic for Rubio, because, as explained above, South Carolina was expected to be Cruz country.
If Marco Rubio beats Cruz in a major Southern state, it could do wonders to establish Rubio as the main rival for Donald Trump going forward, and to hurt Cruz's chances on Super Tuesday March 01,2016
No comments:
Post a Comment