Opinion Poll conducted by polling agency Cicero for the India Today Group shows major gains for BJP in UP and Bihar

Opinion Poll conducted by polling agency Cicero for the India Today Group shows that the Modi 'hawa' is now at gale force in the heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. 

Uttar Pradesh Forecast
Voters are set to give the BJP up to 68 of the 120 seats in these two states, the party's vote share projected to jump by a game-changing 17.5 % in Uttar Pradesh and 16.7 % in Bihar.
Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh and Nitish Kumar in Bihar are the ones yielding the most to Modi.

The BJP won only 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, but is now projected to increase its tally to 46 seats, give or take four

The BJP is in a dominant position in all seven major regions of Uttar Pradesh. It is only in the 14 seats of the Doab region that the vote percentage of the SP is marginally more than that of the BJP. The only other region where there is a close contest is in the 14 seats of North-east Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is on the heels of the SP
 
The Congress and the Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) together hold 27 seats from Uttar Pradesh. This tally is likely to crash to between 6 and 10, which would be a major embarrassment to Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, who was hailed for the party's good showing in 2009.

Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is likely to bag only 9 to 13 seats, unlike the 19 that it won in 2009 Lok Sabha elections

According to the Cicero poll, Mayawati has lost a major chunk of the Brahmin, Baniya, Rajput and Jat vote she had won in 2009. In its core support base of Jatavs, the BSP remains the first choice of a substantial 45 % of the respondents. But this is 17 % less than the Jatavs who voted for the BSP in the last elections, with 15 % of those saying that they would vote for the BJP in these elections.

Samajwadi Party (SP) may end up with 6 seats fewer than its current tally of 21 when votes are counted on May 16,2014

The Samajwadi Party (SP) is holding on to its Yadav-Muslim vote bank with the party's overall vote share projected at 22 % in comparison with 23.3% in 2009. The SP remains the preferred choice of half the state's Yadavs, which is only a marginal downgrade from the 2009 situation.

Despite the Muzaffarnagar riots, the SP has consolidated its vote share among the Ashraf and Pasmanda Muslims of Uttar Pradesh. 40% of Pasmanda Muslims and 28 % of Ashraf Muslims are ready to vote SP. 

 

The Indian National Congress(INC) vote share is likely to come down to 17%, down by almost 4.5 % points of what the party aggregated in 2009. 

The party is losing the upper caste Hindu vote. 

The only community for which the Congress is the top choice is the Ashraf Muslims, 32% of whom have indicated that they would like to vote Congress. 

 

 Bihar ForecastNitish Kumar may soon rue the day he decided to part ways with the BJP. The India Today Group Cicero Opinion Poll indicates a complete rout of the Janata Dal (United). From a high of 20 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) tally could crash to as low as between 0-2 seats. The BJP and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) are projected to win 20-24 seats, a jump from the 12 seats they accounted for in the 2009 polls.

The BJP and LJP taken together are projected to near-double their vote share from 20.5 per cent in 2009 to 38 per cent this time. In what should ring alarm bells in the RJD, the BJP seems to have been able to pull a substantial chunk of the Yadav vote away from Lalu's party. Bihar is witnessing a massive upper caste consolidation in favour of Modi, with Bhumihars, Rajputs and Brahmins rallying behind the BJP.
Modi is set to hit Nitish where it hurts most, pulling away the JD(U)'s core Kurmi-Koeri vote bank. In fact the number of Kurmis and Koeris who said they would vote for the BJP was twice those who said they would vote for Nitish.

Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress are likely to end up with between 15 and 19 seats, a big gain from the six the two parties bagged when they fought separately in 2009. The biggest takeaway from Bihar is the complete decimation of the JD(U) which is projected to lose more than six per cent of the votes it bagged last time.